How the Indian Muslims Vote

How the Indian Muslims Vote

Indian Muslims

India has the world’s largest Muslim minority population, it’s also the world’s third largest after Indonesia and Pakistan. India is home to 10% of the world’s Muslims. As per 2011 Census India’s Muslim population stands at 138,188,240 -13.4% of the total Indian population. The largest concentration – about 47% of all Muslims in India - live in the three states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar. 

Muslims play a crucial role in election politics. Out of 543 Lok Sabha seats, Muslims make up over 30% of voters in 35 constituencies, and between 11—30% of voters in a further 183 constituencies.

Before every elections the bodey of how the Muslims will vote, is raised. The main aim of this tactic is to polarise the votes and gather non-Muslim votes in favour of one candidate. The winning results of this tactic displayed in the results of 2014 elections.

Emerging trends - 2019

On a pan-India level, Muslims in India understand well that the coalition politics is going to stay in the country and the era of one party rule is over. They know that whichever of the two parties (Congress or BJP) wins more seats at the next general election, it would team up with the floaters to notch a majority and form the government, but they also can’t ignore the emergence of a Third Front. In the past Muslims had supported some of these fronts in a big way, particularly those floated by JP and JD. (Muslims also realise that Communists would never pair up with the BJP, so they might support Communist candidates depending on state and local conditions). Thus, the community for the first time perhaps has a wide range of secular choices ranging from Congress to SP, BSP, TDP, TRS,NCP, LJSP, RLD, JD(S), JD(U), RLD, TCP and Communists. The BJP will continue to be rejected by Muslims, particularly with the party portraying Modi as the savious for India and Indians.

How Muslims Vote

Until the mid 70s, Indian Muslims stood solidly behind the Congress Party. Muslims voted ‘en bloc’ to safeguard their interests and due to lack of credible alternative to Congress (except in West Bengal (WB) and Kerala where Muslims often voted for the Communist parties). After the Emergency, Muslims turned away from Congress towards the Janata Party. From the mid-80s onwards, with the establishment of a viable Third Front, Muslims, particularly in UP and Bihar started voting tactically and also supporting new parties like Janata Dal (JD), Samajwadi Party (SP), Telugu Desam Party (TDP), TRS etc, as they now had an alternate to the Congress. Throughout the 70s and 80s Muslims were driven away from the right-wing Hindu parties like the BJP, Shiv Sena etc.

With economic and educational advances, Muslims have started playing a more assertive role in politics. Since the mid-80s Muslims have resorted to voting tactically for different parties at different election levels, or voting for different parties at block, city, state and national level. Muslim voters are no longer a monolithic entity across India. One reason for this could also be the absence of any Muslim leader accepted pan-India.

Nevertheless, certain issues continue to polraise views. Muslims have taken a strong collective stance on issues like demolition of Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, recurring communal riots, Article 370 in J&K (though it does not have any appeal on pan-India level) the Gujarat 2002 riots, and in recent times the rise and spread of right-wing Hindu organisations and selective targeting of Muslim youths for alleged involvement in terrorist activities, cow slaughter and lynching of Muslim meat traders. For these reasons, Muslims’ relations with the BJP. Even in areas where they were becoming more receptive of the BJP, Modi is a complete anathema to them.

In 2019, Muslims will continue to vote tactically. However, this vote may be further diluted by the presence of Muslim parties. These parties claim to champion the Muslim cause, but in reality risk eroding the vote percentage of Congress and other secular parties, who ultimately might be the winner. And this time Congress is seen as the one who is going to throw a spanner to the chances of other parties by getting the Muslim vote divided.

National politics will also play a part – Muslims have been as underwhelmed by the performance of the Congress-led UPA II Government as anyone else – and Congress is likely to lose out whenever there is a credible alternative.

States which matter:

1. Uttar Pradesh

Muslims number about 31 million (18%) in Uttar Pradesh. The Muslim vote in UP has often proved critical in elections at national & state level. Muslims traditionally stood solidly behind the Congress, in spite of it not doing anything concrete for their welfare. However, when they found an alternative in 70s and 80s they supported Janata Party (JP) and then Janata Dal (JD) of VP Singh. More recently they have switched between Mualayma Singh’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). A fear psychosis of Hindutva often underscored Muslims’ voting pattern in UP. However, today, having understood the power of the ballot, the voting pattern is linked with the notion of supporting the party which promises not just sympathy but also maximum representation in the government. In 2019 general elections, their strategy will be to keep Hindutva forces from forming the next central government. In such a situation, the Congress and BSP are likely to make gains among Muslims. The role of Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will play a particularly crucial role in western UP, where the BJP has lost all hopes for a Muslim support due to its complexity in the recent Muzaffarnagar riots.

2. Bihar

Muslims make up around 16 percent of the 105 million population of Bihar. They determine the poll outcome in 60 out of 243 assembly constituencies. In about 50 other seats, Muslim voters make up 10-17 percent of the electorate, enough to substantially influence poll outcomes. Traditionally, Muslims supported the Congress in the state and also the JP movement and JD and subsequent Third Front parties. Later they turned their support to Laloo Yadava’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), besides JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Ram Vilas Paswan. For 2019 elections the Muslim electorate in Bihar seems to be in a confused state, they’ll have to make a choice between supporting Nitish Kumar or the Congress, RJD, RLD and JD(U), and of which they are not clear now.

3. West Bengal

Muslims makeup between 25-30% of the population of West Bengal (91 million). The key issues for Muslims in West Bengal (WB) are social welfare and economic development. Any anti-Muslim issues will of course influence poll decisions in the sense, that they will not vote for the BJP. Urdu speaking Muslims are confined to greater Kolkata. They are less secular in nature and more likely to be aggressive.

ends