How the Muslims vote in 2019.

How the Muslims vote in 2019.

Asad Mirza

The results of the 2019 elections to constitute the 19 Lok Sabha were a bit of unexpected, even for the winners and the ruling party.

Even though various theories are doing the rounds of large scale rigging, change of EVMs etc. Yet, the most important point to ponder is that how many votes the ruling BJP was able to muster from the largest minority community of the country.

An analysis of detailed results constituency by constituency points out the fact that Muslims across India, indeed voted for the BJP.

There are 46 constituencies in the country which have more than 35% Muslim population. Of these the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won on 14 seats in 2019.

While it had won in all the 12 Muslim majority constituencies of Uttar Pradesh in 2014, in 2019 it won in only five such constituencies —Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Bahraich and Bareilly.

A comparative analysis of the votes polled in 2014 and in 2019 in the seven seats of Uttar Pradesh that the NDA could not retain this time, the BJP has either managed to hold on to its 2014 vote share or, in some cases, increased it.

In Bijnor, the BJP candidate got 46% in 2014; but this time, the party got 45%. Similarly, in Amroha, it was 48% in 2014; this time it was 46%, and the majority of votes against the BJP came from Amroha city, in four other assembly segments the BJP retained its vote share.

In Moradabad the vote share remained the same at 43% in 2014 and 2019. In Rampur, the BJP had got 37% votes in 2014, which increased to 42% this time. In Saharanpur, it retained the 2014 vote share at 40%.

The party’s vote share in Sambhal increased from 34% to 41%, while in the Nagina seat, the numbers remained the same, 40%. In the Shrawasti parliamentary constituency, it was 36% in 2014, which increased to 44% this time.

Analysts are of the view that the Muslims voted for the BJP overwhelmingly in Bihar where it fought the election in an alliance with the Janata Dal United (JDU).

In 2014, the BJP had lost on all the four seats that have more than 35% Muslim population. This includes Araria that has 41% Muslim population, Kishanganj 57%, Katihar 43% and Purnia 38%. However, this time the NDA won on all these three seats, except Kishanganj.

In West Bengal, of the 11 seats where the Muslim population is more than 35%, the BJP won on two such seats—Raiganj where the Muslim population is 48% and Malda Uttar where it is 50%. It could not win on any of these two seats in 2014.

In Jangipur, where the Muslim population is 64%, its candidate came at the second position, getting 3.17 lakh votes, which was 70,000 more than Abhijit Mukherjee of Congress, who came third.

Similarly in Malda Dakshin, where the Muslim population is 54%, the BJP candidate lost by a slender margin of 8,000 votes.

However, according to observers of West Bengal politics, in Maldaha Uttar, the Muslim vote got divided between members of the Ghani Khan family—Isha Khan Chaudhury and Mausam Noor as a result of which Khagen Murmu of BJP won.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP retained its two seats that it had won in 2014, Ladakh and Udhampur.

In Assam, of four such seats, the BJP wrested Karimganj from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), while it lost the Naugaon seat by 16,700 votes that it had won in 2014. Political observers feel that with Badruddin Ajmal’s AIDUF not fielding a candidate in Naugaon helped in the consolidation of the Muslim vote in favour of Congress.

In Telangana, of the two such seats, BJP retained the Secunderabad seat.  This came as a real surprise as the TRS was seen as the saviour of Muslims in the state and its leader YSR has launched many schemes targeted at Muslims.

A pre-poll study done in March 2019 by CSDS-Lokniti among 10,000 respondents spread across 19 states of India in which 13% of the respondents were Muslims, 26% said that Narendra Modi should get another term.

This was more than what Christians (20%) and Sikhs (21%) said; 14% of the Muslims who took part in the study said that their second choice after Congress was the BJP and not other parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

BJP leaders said that the narrow approach of the media regarding BJP and Muslims and to some extent the irresponsible statements made by some of its leaders had led to a trust deficit between the BJP and Muslims.

If we analyse the factors, which played the key role, in this change of heart, varies from state to state. In UP, where the BJP won even in Muzaffarnagar and Kairana, the two towns which were affected most by the communal riots in 2013, shows that people Muslims too have started thinking in terms of what is better at state level and what is better at the national level. It also points out to the fact that out of many schemes launched by the previous-NDA government, some schemes have benefitted the people and the beneficiaries have changed their loyalties based on benefits accruing to them, as they also rue the fact that various governments during the last 70 years or so have only paid lip-service to their welfare.

In Bihar, the BJP rode piggy back on the popularity of JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar and his various pro-poor welfare schemes.

In West Bengal, particularly in north of the state, the BJP was able to steal a march due to the infighting in the family of late Ghani Khan Chaudhary and also people’s disillusionment with the TMC.

One factor which should be put to question in this background is whether the Muslims have stopped listening to their religious leaders and so called community leaders, and started deciding their fate based on other factors. The answer is yes. An example of this could be found in Gonga, UP, where Mainaz Begum, in spite of huge resistance from her husband and in laws, decided to name her newborn as Narendra Modi. The decision was based on her impression of PM Modi, as a do gooder and deliverer of promises.

Perhaps this is a portent of the future, when leaders will be elected based on their past performance and promise keeping and to a large extent this factor played its role in the recent elections too.

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